OK....So here is the big picture....We have a large upper level low that will begin to move on shore in the Pacific NW beginning Monday evening. This upper level low will move in to the Tri-State area on Wednesday. So here is the potential set up on Wednesday...
All week long we've had SE winds pumping moisture in to the area. On Wednesday, dew points look to be in the mid to upper 40s with temperatures in the 50s and 60s, this is not that bad for the high plains of SE Wyoming. Southeasterly winds will be at the surface with southwesterlies aloft. CAPE values still look to be a little bit on the low side through Wednesday evening along with a fairly strong capping inversion. The capping in version looks to weaken in the late evening hours which should allow a few storms to develop. Wind shear doesn't look horrible Wednesday night, so could see a severe storm or two through the night.
Depending on what happens Wednesday, it could be a very busy day Thursday. Let's start of Thursday morning..... Hello!!! Dew points in the low 50s in Northeastern Colorado, going as far west as the Greeley area... Temperatures also appear to be in the low to mid 50s....FOG. A surface low looks to begin to develop east of Denver, if this low can deepen enough through 18z, winds will increase from an easterly direction between Denver and Cheyenne. At this time, a nice southerly 50 kt jet is lined up along the front range.
This storm is very similar to the situation we had on May 22nd, 2008. I agree that the greatest severe weather potential will be across Western Kansas. However, if the fog that develops Thursday morning can break between 9 AM and 10 AM, surface heating may heat up the surface enough to allow a few thunderstorms to explode and become severe and potentially tornadic in a matter of minutes.....
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That would be awesome, lets hope it doesnt hit another city though
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