Sunday, May 9, 2010

Severe Weather Forecast For Monday May 9th, 2010

Well, looks like North-Central Oklahoma and Southern Kansas are goingto be in-store for an epic day with a good chance of tornadic supercells.
A short wave trough will be moving across northern New Mexico and Southern Colorado and in to Kansas through the day Monday. A dryline will set up across central Oklahoma with dewpoints in the upper 60s and low 70s across central and Eastern Oklahama. High dewpoints will be caused by good SSE flow at the surface advecting moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, but will be aided by a few lingering showers and thunderstorms from the previous night. If the showers last long enough, it will keep convection from developing. However, skies should clear enough in the early afternoon hours to allow temperatures to warm in to the 70s allowing the air mass to become extremely unstable. Models show CAPE values of 3000-3500 j/kg.

One potential problem that the models have hinted at was a potential for a strong cap, mainly through the early evening hours, which could limit convective activity. However, as the cold front collied with the dryline, surface convergance along the dryline and cold front should allow a few storms to break the cap early, which will cause the storms to explode.

Winds at the surface will be from the SSE at 15-20 kts with winds veering nicely at the lower levels of the atmosphere. A strong low level jet will be in place where winds at 850 mb will be at 65 kts, perfect for supercell thunderstorms.

A Potential Target

Feel the best target for tornadic thunderstorms will be across north-central Oklahoma, on the Northern Edge of thee 3000 J/kg CAPE bomb, it is here where we will see the best veering winds. Expect thunderstorms to fire between 5 and 6 PM central time. Discrete rotating cells will be likely prior to 8 PM before a whole line of thunderstorms fire making the primary threat large hail and damaging winds. So I would say Morrison, OK would be a good place to target for getting in to position see some tornadoes.

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