Friday, April 9, 2010

First Severe Weather Event of 2010??????

Forecast as of 4/9/2010

Mild spring weather looks to continue through the weekend for the Tri-State area. With the exception of a few isolated thunderstorms on Saturday and possibly Sunday, things are looking pretty good.

Models show the possibility of a few isolated thunderstorms firing on the Laramie range Saturday afternoon. CAPE and Lifted Indecies suggest a few isolated storms will be possible. There is a strong cap in place over locations east of I-25, so won't expect any shower activity east of I-25. Decided to throw in a slight chance of an Isolated thunderstorm for southeast Wyoming and Northern Colrado for the slight chance that a thunderstorm will reach I-25 and will effect Cheyenne and/or Fort Collins.

Severe Weather Forecast For Monday-Tuesday

Timing of the Fropa has change over the past couple model runs and has held off the front until Tuesday. The severe weather threat looks to be the greatest on Tuesday across the region along the cold front.

GFS is a little wacky and still is a little too fast with this system, so I will trust the Euro and wait for the NAM's output. As of the 18z model runs, the GFS is a little faster and less amplified than the Euro. The GFS practically moves any chance of severe weather over central Nebraska. Also, 18z GFS shows a lee cyclone setting up over northeastern Colorado which could help turn winds easterly across northern Kansas and Central Nebraska increasing the chance of tornadoes across those regions, on the other hand, the bulk shear lies over southeast Wyoming and the Panhandle of Nebraska.

Euro looks the most promising for a potential severe weather event across Southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Trough is a little more amplified compared to the GFS and is a little slower. Lack details from the Euro, so will wait until tomorrow's NAM to get it's details as it appear the NAM and Euro are showing similar results through Monday. Forecast updates will be done through the weekend.

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