Wednesday, April 7, 2010

Mild and Dry Weather on the Way!!!

Forecast as of 4/7/2010

Well the snow ended as expected before sunrise with generally clear skies through much of Wednesday. My snow forecast looks like it might have barely verified with Cheyenne looking like we saw maybe a little over 2.0". Snow fall rates turned out to be a little lower than I expected allowing snow to generally melt faster than it could stick.

One more little issue in this forecast before high pressure brings some relatively quiet weather to the area. There is a small upper level disturbance that was moving out of Montana as of 19z. This disturbance is coming on the back side of the upper level trough that moved through last night. A nice little jet streak is accompanying this energy with the Tri-State region being located on the jet streak's left exit region. In addition, the recent snow has already melted and now the ground is becoming warmer as it absorbs more sunlight. Low level moisture and day time heat will all CAPE values to be between 500 and 600 J/kg. The combination of the jet streak producing lift and the "warm/moist" air at the surface should be enough to kick off some isolated showers and perhaps even some thunder!

The WRF and NAM are drier than the GFS, but both hint at most of the shower activity remaining in Colorado. This would make sense as temperatures in Colorado are warmer this afternoon, and the jet streak will be moving through SE Wyoming and the Panhandle through 9:00 PM which will shift the best south and east of the area.

High pressure will move in behind this energy allowing highs to reach the 50s. A weak cold front will bring more clouds to the area Friday, but nothing more. The weekend looks great with highs in the 50s and 60s.

Next large trough moves in to the area Monday with a chance of isolated thunderstorms and rain showers.

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