Tuesday, April 6, 2010

Weather Forecast as of 4/6/2010

Last night's forecast has verified nicely with showers wrapping up shortly around midnight for Cheyenne and dry conditions for extreme southeastern Wyoming under downslope winds and subsidence aloft. Temperatures did warm a little bit more than expected, but not to worry snow showers as of 23Z were beginning to drop southward toward the area.

As of 23Z, upper level low was just southeast of Cheyenne and pushing further to south and southeast. As low moves southward, upper level dynamics will be in place along with a shallow upslope flow to create moderate to heavy snow showers. Precipitation should fall in the form of snow over southeast Wyoming. A little bit more of a challenge with the change over to snow across the panhandle. 23Z observations showed snow pushing in to northern portions of the panhandle with a chilly rain to rain/snow mix elsewhere. I expect that a complete change over to snow will happen by 7:00 PM for just about everyone in Nebraska except for the Sidney area where a rain/snow mix is expected through 8:00 PM. Colorado locations will see showers develop after 8:00 PM with all snow expected after 10:00 PM.

WRF, NAM, and GFS appear to be a little closer on QPF with this storm. Overall, expect snow accumulations of 2-4 Inches in and around Cheyenne with less snow south. Models show a heavier band of snow setting up north of Cheyenne stretching from Chugwater to Bridgeport. This heavier band could bring up to 6 inches of snow in spotty areas, mainly in southeast Wyoming. My early thinking on this storm was less snow across the Panhandle with under 2 inches expected. Latest model runs show heavier snowfall rates which will allow snow to pile up faster than it could melt. So, expect between 2-4 inches pf snow with heavier snow accumulations between Kimball and Scottsbluff. Colorado will see less accumulation with more snow melt and lighter snowfall rates. Expect snow accumulations of 1-3 inches in Weld county with 2-4 inches from Fort Collins to Loveland.

High pressure settles in for the rest of the week with temperatures warming in to the upper 50s and low 60s. A weak front will move through the area Friday, but will have little to no affect on the area.

A larger storm approaches the area on Monday. This storm will be interesting as it has the ability to bring severe thunderstorms to the area, I'll let you know more as it gets closer!!!!

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