Thursday, April 8, 2010

A Nice Spring Week!

Forecast as 4/8/2010

Well it's been a pretty nice day as high pressure is bringing the area plenty of sunshine and mild temperatures. We have a little cold front on the way that wont bring much of anything to the area on Friday. Models have shown a little bit more moisture in the last 24 hours compared to what they were showing earlier this week, but still feel the Cheyenne area or even my viewing area will see much with it.

Expect clouds to increase and temperatures to remain generally steady after the front moves through the area on Friday. Could see a few afternoon t-storms in the mountains and possibly over Laramie. Other than that the viewing area should see minimal shower activity as I expect the heaviest activity to be north of a line from Wheatland to Torrington.

Saturday should be pleasant with perhaps a stray mountain shower or Thunderstorm.

Next storm to affect the area will swing in Monday and Tuesday. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms from this system. One wave of energy will move through the area on Monday night and eject to the northeast. GFS and ECMWF differ on evolution of this shortwave. GFS is further north while ECMWF is furthur south. If the GFS solution pans out, the best chance of severe weather will probably be across central Nebraska or even parts of South Dakota. With that said, I'm not all that impressed with the development of this storm system. CAPE looks a little weak, with dew points in the 50s and low 60s and with every model run the wind shear looks a little less impressive.

So if your looking for a chase on Monday, hope for Euro solution with a slightly further south track, that may just kick up the instability and wind shear needed for tornadic supercells in western and central Kansas and possibly western Texas.

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